PI: Ping Liu
University of Hawaii
2525 Correa Road
Honolulu, HI 96822
Phone: 808-956-3305
Fax: 808-956-9425
Email: pliu@soest.hawaii.edu
Based upon recent analysis of myself and other scientists (Liu et al., 2001), the PCM 1.1 has simulated a reasonable historical dry climatology of the Sahara Desert in the twentieth century. This coupled climate model also predicted a drying, warming, shrinking, and northward retreating desert during the 21st century in the business as usual scenario of global greenhouse gases increasing. Could other modern coupled climate models produce a similar or even more realistic dry climatology over the Desert? Will these models predict similar future climate change of the Sahara in the background of global warming? Or even the arid and semi-arid climate change all over the world? An intercomparison of CMIP2+ coupled models on these puzzles seems necessary and scientific. Some observational data sources in hand such as Xie and Arkin rainfall, IPCC rainfall and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data etc. will be used as references.
REFERENCE
Liu, P., W. M. Washington, G. A. Meehl, G. Wu, G. L. Potter, 2001: Historical and future trends of the Sahara Desert. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 28, No. 14, 2683-2686