PI: Kristin Kristin Kuntz-Duriseti
Stanford University
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Email: kkd@Stanford.EDU
In my dissertation I integrate a precautionary saving model from economics into the Nordhaus (1994) DICE integrated assessment model (IAM). I demonstrate that uncertainty over future climate change scenarios introduces an additional precautionary motive for greater greenhouse gas abatement beyond risk aversion. Current assessments may identify a range of possible "states of the world" (SOW) in order to evaluate policy responses. These analyses are limited because they are generally restricted to only a few SOW and/or time periods (e.g. before and after policy action; before and after uncertainty resolution) due to the complexity of following many SOW over several time periods). The specific representation of the "precautionary principle" I propose reflects the range of current expert knowledge regarding future climate change (i.e., the AOGCM model simulations) and incorporates this into existing IAMs through a relatively transparent parameterization. In order to perform this analysis, I request access to the CMIP simulation data on globally averaged temperature, including the data on the ensemble mean across all simulations, used in figure 9.3 of IPCC TAR Ch. 9. Using this data, I will create a time series for the variance of the simulations which I will incorporate into my analysis.