Bell, J., P. Duffy , C. Covey, L.
Sloan and the CMIP investigators, 2000:
Comparison of temperature variability
in observations and sixteen climate model simulations
Geophysical Research Letters, 27,
261-264.
Abstract
Understanding
how much, if any, of observed climate changes are anthropogenic depends
upon understanding the magnitude and spatial patterns of natural climate
variability. We have compared simulated surface air temperature (SAT) variability
in 16 coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice climate model simulations to observed
temperature variability. The majority of the simulations exhibit excessive
air temperature variability over land while simulated temperature variability
over oceans is generally too low. The ratio of variability over land to
over oceans is too high in all the simulations, relative to observations.
We have identified several factors which may contribute to the differences
in temperature variability. In particular, many of the models use "bucket"
land surface schemes which produce greater temperature variability over
land, due to lower levels of soil moisture, than more realistic land surface
schemes produce.